Model settings for this race
Percent settings are per unit of the factor (e.g. 1.5 = 1.5% per kg). "Strength of all adjustments" scales every tilt: 0 = market only, 1 = full strength.
Runners
24 horses (24 running). Edit any box, then press Update.
Probability matrix
R7 · 3:00pm · Melbourne Cup (G1) 3200m · 24 runners · Good track · places paid: 3 · the odds add up to 124% (100% = no bookmaker margin)
Jumps 3:00pm AEDT (12:00pm Perth). Prices from the paper; paste fresh ones before you bet.
Jumps 3:00pm AEDT (12:00pm Perth). Prices from the paper; paste fresh ones before you bet.
| Rank | No. | Horse | Odds | Market | Win | Fair odds | Change | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | Place (top 3) | Fair place | Top 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 20 | Point Of Law | $6.50 | 12.4% | 13.4% | $7.46 | +1.0 | 12.3% | 11.2% | 10.1% | 36.8% | $2.72 | 46.9% |
| 2 | 2 | Trustyourinstinct | $8.50 | 9.5% | 9.2% | $10.89 | -0.3 | 8.9% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 26.7% | $3.75 | 34.9% |
| 3 | 24 | Shockletz | $10.00 | 8.1% | 7.8% | $12.90 | -0.3 | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 22.9% | $4.37 | 30.3% |
| 4 | 11 | Juja Kibo | $11.00 | 7.3% | 7.4% | $13.54 | +0.0 | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 21.9% | $4.56 | 29.0% |
| 5 | 16 | So You Are | $12.00 | 6.7% | 7.3% | $13.63 | +0.6 | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 21.8% | $4.59 | 28.9% |
| 6 | 12 | Hopewell Rock | $11.00 | 7.3% | 7.3% | $13.73 | -0.1 | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 21.6% | $4.62 | 28.7% |
| 7 | 4 | Middle Earth | $14.00 | 5.8% | 6.2% | $16.12 | +0.4 | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 18.7% | $5.36 | 24.9% |
| 8 | 1 | Sons And Lovers | $21.00 | 3.8% | 4.1% | $24.28 | +0.3 | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 12.7% | $7.88 | 17.2% |
| 9 | 18 | James J Braddock | $19.00 | 4.3% | 3.8% | $26.29 | -0.4 | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 11.8% | $8.50 | 15.9% |
| 10 | 6 | Enfjaar | $23.00 | 3.5% | 3.6% | $28.09 | +0.0 | 3.7% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 11.0% | $9.06 | 15.0% |
| 11 | 22 | Mr Monaco | $23.00 | 3.5% | 3.3% | $30.36 | -0.2 | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 10.2% | $9.76 | 13.9% |
| 12 | 15 | Zahrann | $26.00 | 3.1% | 3.1% | $31.96 | +0.0 | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 9.7% | $10.26 | 13.3% |
| 13 | 10 | Goodie Two Shoes | $26.00 | 3.1% | 3.1% | $32.48 | -0.0 | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 9.6% | $10.42 | 13.0% |
| 14 | 23 | Zakouma | $26.00 | 3.1% | 3.0% | $33.39 | -0.1 | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 9.3% | $10.70 | 12.7% |
| 15 | 14 | Soul Of Spain | $31.00 | 2.6% | 2.7% | $37.22 | +0.1 | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 8.4% | $11.89 | 11.5% |
| 16 | 3 | Knight's Choice | $34.00 | 2.4% | 2.6% | $38.46 | +0.2 | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 8.1% | $12.27 | 11.1% |
| 17 | 19 | Kizlyar | $34.00 | 2.4% | 2.1% | $46.53 | -0.2 | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 6.8% | $14.78 | 9.3% |
| 18 | 8 | Wine Dark Sea | $41.00 | 2.0% | 1.7% | $57.80 | -0.2 | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 5.5% | $18.28 | 7.5% |
| 19 | 9 | Asterix | $51.00 | 1.6% | 1.6% | $64.09 | -0.0 | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 4.9% | $20.23 | 6.8% |
| 20 | 17 | Future History | $51.00 | 1.6% | 1.5% | $65.04 | -0.0 | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 4.9% | $20.53 | 6.7% |
| 21 | 7 | Royal Supremacy | $51.00 | 1.6% | 1.4% | $73.39 | -0.2 | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 4.3% | $23.12 | 5.9% |
| 22 | 5 | Vauban | $51.00 | 1.6% | 1.3% | $74.25 | -0.2 | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 4.3% | $23.39 | 5.9% |
| 23 | 21 | Strictly Business | $61.00 | 1.3% | 1.3% | $76.71 | -0.0 | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 4.1% | $24.15 | 5.7% |
| 24 | 13 | Onesmoothoperator | $61.00 | 1.3% | 1.2% | $82.96 | -0.1 | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 3.8% | $26.09 | 5.3% |
Finishing-position chances use the standard Harville method: once a horse is placed, the others share the remaining chance in proportion to their win chances. It tends to slightly overrate favourites for 2nd and 3rd.
Exotics calculator
Your tote trifecta 2, 20, 24Your fixed trifecta 2, 11, 20
Enter horse numbers for every position.
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